what a tough opening week from del mar as the price horses keep pouring in. three carryovers in four days of racing in the pick-6. it's going to get hit today as the fields look full, but betable. here's my take pre-scratches.
r3: halfbridled. this field looks pretty soft for a typical open maiden sp wt at del mar. only seven horses, and five first timers. despite the rail draw and the presence of baffert and bonde debut runners, i like mandella's charge on the inside. she blistered the track on the 21st and now needs only to get a clean break in here to contend. with 2 yos, the rail can be daunting, but if julie can get her away in good order, the filly should be rumbling inside the 16th pole. is 5.5 too short? perhaps, but at 5/1, it's great value to find out.
r4: dixie thrill. i'm tempted to back chinkapin, but the race track played like an escalator to speed yesterday, and i just don't know whether horses can make up any ground at all until watching the first few races. with that disclaimer, dixie thrill should get a great trip tracking bz jones and palmeiro. the former has been freshened for this and loves the mile distance and most importantly, he gets pval on the lead. i'm hoping the class level is a little too much and dixie thrill can grind away to a win at a good price. chinkapin is the best of the closers and may have enough tactical speed to lay close enough to reel in the leaders. tough race any way you look at it. forlaan, who i bet last time, looks way overmatched and is a throwout in here.
r5: holy hazel. about half the tickets will have just like that singled. not me. i'm using her, but will also use holy hazel and chasethegold. 'hazel has been away more than a year, but looks like papa mandella has been very patient bringing her back and now unveils her routing on grass. the turf and route breeding is there, but it is tough to win routing first time back (although much much easier to do so on turf than on dirt). i hope this is one in a string of winners for mandella today. if just like that romps at 3/5, i tip my cap and move on. chasethegold is also interesting b/c of her churchill form for baby mandella and gets the coveted two sprint prep for this stretchout. she's marooned in the 10-hole, but no matter, with her speed she should be right up on the pace into the clubhouse turn.
r8: decarchy. much like golden apples, this one owes me nothing, and literally ANY of the horses can win, but i think i can get frankel at a price in a six horse field. i know, sounds impossible, but redattorre, special ring, and mr. acpen will all take money and irish warrior just beat this guy. that means, i'm looking at 9/2 or so in a 6 horse field. that's damn good value for me. the 9f distance may be a tad too far for decarchy but i look for kent to have this one a little closer to the pace today, about five lengths back of special ring and mr. acpen. in order for him to win, he's got to lap over special ring, mr. acpen and redattore and then hold off irish warrior. a tough task indeed, but i'll take the odds to find out. i'd alsolook at irish warrior, who will also be a good price and will be making a strong run with julie aboard.
r9: furious cat. if i'm still alive in the p/6, i'll have favorite montbretia and this longshot, furious cat. 'cat by dual classic winner tabasco cat, has been working for a long time for the elder dollase. while he's not known for success first out, this one will be a juicy price with all the other blue bloods in the field. i think he'll show speed and is nicely drawn in the 6 hole. if he gets away early, he may hang around a lot longer than people think.
good luck.
r3: halfbridled. this field looks pretty soft for a typical open maiden sp wt at del mar. only seven horses, and five first timers. despite the rail draw and the presence of baffert and bonde debut runners, i like mandella's charge on the inside. she blistered the track on the 21st and now needs only to get a clean break in here to contend. with 2 yos, the rail can be daunting, but if julie can get her away in good order, the filly should be rumbling inside the 16th pole. is 5.5 too short? perhaps, but at 5/1, it's great value to find out.
r4: dixie thrill. i'm tempted to back chinkapin, but the race track played like an escalator to speed yesterday, and i just don't know whether horses can make up any ground at all until watching the first few races. with that disclaimer, dixie thrill should get a great trip tracking bz jones and palmeiro. the former has been freshened for this and loves the mile distance and most importantly, he gets pval on the lead. i'm hoping the class level is a little too much and dixie thrill can grind away to a win at a good price. chinkapin is the best of the closers and may have enough tactical speed to lay close enough to reel in the leaders. tough race any way you look at it. forlaan, who i bet last time, looks way overmatched and is a throwout in here.
r5: holy hazel. about half the tickets will have just like that singled. not me. i'm using her, but will also use holy hazel and chasethegold. 'hazel has been away more than a year, but looks like papa mandella has been very patient bringing her back and now unveils her routing on grass. the turf and route breeding is there, but it is tough to win routing first time back (although much much easier to do so on turf than on dirt). i hope this is one in a string of winners for mandella today. if just like that romps at 3/5, i tip my cap and move on. chasethegold is also interesting b/c of her churchill form for baby mandella and gets the coveted two sprint prep for this stretchout. she's marooned in the 10-hole, but no matter, with her speed she should be right up on the pace into the clubhouse turn.
r8: decarchy. much like golden apples, this one owes me nothing, and literally ANY of the horses can win, but i think i can get frankel at a price in a six horse field. i know, sounds impossible, but redattorre, special ring, and mr. acpen will all take money and irish warrior just beat this guy. that means, i'm looking at 9/2 or so in a 6 horse field. that's damn good value for me. the 9f distance may be a tad too far for decarchy but i look for kent to have this one a little closer to the pace today, about five lengths back of special ring and mr. acpen. in order for him to win, he's got to lap over special ring, mr. acpen and redattore and then hold off irish warrior. a tough task indeed, but i'll take the odds to find out. i'd alsolook at irish warrior, who will also be a good price and will be making a strong run with julie aboard.
r9: furious cat. if i'm still alive in the p/6, i'll have favorite montbretia and this longshot, furious cat. 'cat by dual classic winner tabasco cat, has been working for a long time for the elder dollase. while he's not known for success first out, this one will be a juicy price with all the other blue bloods in the field. i think he'll show speed and is nicely drawn in the 6 hole. if he gets away early, he may hang around a lot longer than people think.
good luck.
